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Climate Change

Climate Change

Climate is the average state of the atmosphere over 30 years or more, and since industrialization fossil-fuel use has raised CO₂ and global mean temperature by about 1.1°C. Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit infrared from the surface, keeping Earth warm; without them the average would fall to about -18°C. Natural factors such as Milankovitch cycles exist but act over tens of thousands of years, so the rapid warming of recent decades is explained by human greenhouse-gas growth. Here you can move the year slider and watch how CO₂ concentration and temperature anomaly change together.

Earth is warming
🌡️ What is climate change?
①Climate: 30+ year average atmospheric state (different from weather!)
②Since the Industrial Revolution: fossil fuel use → CO₂ rises sharply → Earth warms
③Global average temperature ~1.1°C above pre-industrial (as of 2020)
CO₂ concentration and temperature change
2020
💡 Key observations
①CO₂ and temperature rise together (correlated)
②Sharp rise after 1950 — industrialization and fossil fuel surge
③Projection: without mitigation, 2100 could exceed +3.5°C
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect principle
solar radiation → surface heating → IR emission → greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit → temperature maintained
without greenhouse gases, Earth's average would be ~-18°C (now ~15°C)

Main greenhouse gases

ListTypes of greenhouse gases
CO₂ (carbon dioxide)
fossil fuel burning, deforestation
largest contributor
CH₄ (methane)
livestock/agriculture, wetlands, natural gas
~25× greenhouse effect of CO₂
N₂O (nitrous oxide)
fertilizers, industrial processes
~300× CO₂
CFCs
refrigerants, also damage ozone layer
~thousands× CO₂
Milankovitch cycles (natural climate change)
Milankovitch cycles
eccentricity (100 ka) + axial tilt (41 ka) + precession (26 ka)
the distribution of solar energy Earth receives changes cyclically → ice ages / interglacials
🔬 Natural vs anthropogenic climate change
①Natural: Milankovitch cycles, volcanic eruptions, solar activity (thousands–tens of thousands of years)
②Anthropogenic: greenhouse emissions, deforestation, urbanization (decades–centuries)
③Current rapid warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone → anthropogenic cause
Worked Examples and Exam Practice
Example 1
If there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, about what would Earth's average temperature be? (currently about 15°C)
1
Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit the infrared the surface gives off, warming the surface.
2
Without them, that warming is lost and the average temperature falls to about -18°C.
About -18°C
The greenhouse effect itself is a natural process essential for life; the problem is the part humans have intensified.
Example 2
Why can recent decades of rapid warming not be explained by Milankovitch cycles?
1
Milankovitch cycles act very slowly, over tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
2
The recent rise happened within decades and matches the surge in CO₂, so it is attributed to human causes.
Different time scales: Milankovitch over tens of thousands of years, the recent rise over decades (anthropogenic)
Natural factors (Milankovitch, volcanoes, the Sun) and human factors (greenhouse gases) are distinguished by their time scales.
CSAT-style
Which statement about climate change and the greenhouse effect is correct?
Climate means the day-to-day state of the atmosphere
CO₂ contributes most to warming because it is emitted in large amounts
The greenhouse effect is an artificial phenomenon created by humans
The eccentricity cycle of Milankovitch is about 26,000 years
Without greenhouse gases, Earth would be warmer than now
② CO₂ contributes most to warming because it is emitted in large amounts
1
Methane and nitrous oxide are stronger per molecule, but CO₂, emitted in far greater amounts, contributes the most to overall warming.
2
Climate is a 30-year-plus average (①), the greenhouse effect is natural (③), the eccentricity cycle is about 100,000 years (④), and without greenhouse gases Earth would cool to about -18°C (⑤).
Summary
Climate change core
fossil fuels → CO₂ ↑ → enhanced greenhouse effect → global warming
natural (Milankovitch) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases) factors combine
🎯 Exam Points
①Greenhouse effect: absorb/re-emit IR → maintains Earth temperature (a natural phenomenon)
②Main GHGs: CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFCs — CO₂ contributes most by quantity
③Milankovitch: eccentricity (100 ka) + tilt (41 ka) + precession (26 ka)
④Warming impacts: sea-level rise, extreme weather, ecosystem changes
⑤Without greenhouse effect, Earth would be ~-18°C (currently ~15°C)
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