Teaching pack · Year 10 Probabilityseegongsik /au
Estimating Conditional Probability by Simulation: a week of ready-to-teach maths
Five days of lessons for Year 10 Probability. Print this pack and the week is prepared.
AC9M10P02
design and conduct repeated chance experiments and simulations using digital tools to model conditional probability and interpret results
Start here: five minutes to Monday
- Skim the week at a glance.
- Print the five days (plan + worksheet each).
- Cut out the card sheet once.
- Open the free interactive unit on your board.
- Teach from the plan.
On the board
On-screen pictures: “A stream of simulated trials”, “Count inside the condition only”, “More trials, steadier estimate”, “The denominator is the whole game”, “Day 5 practice”.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Aligned to Australian Curriculum V9 (AC9M10P02). Original material from seegongsik. Descriptors (c) ACARA, CC BY 4.0.
The week at a glance5 lessons
The week at a glance
One lesson a day. Run them in order where you can.
| Day | Lesson | Children learn and do | On screen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A stream of simulated trials | Practise the idea with talk, board and worksheet | Board: A stream of simulated trials |
| 2 | Count inside the condition only | Practise the idea with talk, board and worksheet | Board: Count inside the condition only |
| 3 | More trials, steadier estimate | Practise the idea with talk, board and worksheet | Board: More trials, steadier estimate |
| 4 | The denominator is the whole game | Practise the idea with talk, board and worksheet | Board: The denominator is the whole game |
| 5 | Day 5 practice | Practise the idea with talk, board and worksheet | Board: Day 5 practice |
Materials
- This pack printed.
- Pencils and the board or projector.
- Optional counters or rulers if a day plan names them.
A note home
This week in maths we work on estimating conditional probability by simulation. Ask: What did you practise today?
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02/pack
Day 1 · Teacher planDay 1 of 5
A stream of simulated trials
Children practise “A stream of simulated trials” with talk, the board picture, and a short worksheet. About 40 minutes.
We are learning to
- explain a stream of simulated trials in Year 10 words,
- use the board picture to check thinking,
- record an example on paper.
Success criteria
- I can show one example of today’s idea.
- I can say the idea in a short sentence.
You need
- interactive unit open on “A stream of simulated trials”,
- worksheet (next sheet), one per child,
Lesson flow (about 40 minutes)
| 5 min | Warm-up Ask: “What might help us today?” |
| 10 min | On the board Open “A stream of simulated trials”. Ask: “What changed on the screen?” |
| 15 min | Worksheet Children complete the day sheet. |
| 10 min | Share Ask: “In one sentence, what was today’s idea?” |
On the board
Leave “A stream of simulated trials” on screen for the main block.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Watch for
- Skipping the board -- bring them back to the picture.
- Correct answer with no explanation -- ask how do you know?
Answers and look-fors
- Meeting the idea sounds like a clear sentence about a stream of simulated trials.
Day 1 · Worksheet
A stream of simulated trials
NameClassDate
Use the board picture. Show your thinking.
1. Draw or write one example from the board.
2. What is the main idea in your words?
3. Make a second example of your own.
I know I am right because
I can teach this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Day 2 · Teacher planDay 2 of 5
Count inside the condition only
Children practise “Count inside the condition only” with talk, the board picture, and a short worksheet. About 40 minutes.
We are learning to
- explain count inside the condition only in Year 10 words,
- use the board picture to check thinking,
- record an example on paper.
Success criteria
- I can show one example of today’s idea.
- I can say the idea in a short sentence.
You need
- interactive unit open on “Count inside the condition only”,
- worksheet (next sheet), one per child,
Lesson flow (about 40 minutes)
| 5 min | Warm-up Ask: “What might help us today?” |
| 10 min | On the board Open “Count inside the condition only”. Ask: “What changed on the screen?” |
| 15 min | Worksheet Children complete the day sheet. |
| 10 min | Share Ask: “In one sentence, what was today’s idea?” |
On the board
Leave “Count inside the condition only” on screen for the main block.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Watch for
- Skipping the board -- bring them back to the picture.
- Correct answer with no explanation -- ask how do you know?
Answers and look-fors
- Meeting the idea sounds like a clear sentence about count inside the condition only.
Day 2 · Worksheet
Count inside the condition only
NameClassDate
Use the board picture. Show your thinking.
1. Draw or write one example from the board.
2. What is the main idea in your words?
3. Make a second example of your own.
I know I am right because
I can teach this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Day 3 · Teacher planDay 3 of 5
More trials, steadier estimate
Children practise “More trials, steadier estimate” with talk, the board picture, and a short worksheet. About 40 minutes.
We are learning to
- explain more trials, steadier estimate in Year 10 words,
- use the board picture to check thinking,
- record an example on paper.
Success criteria
- I can show one example of today’s idea.
- I can say the idea in a short sentence.
You need
- interactive unit open on “More trials, steadier estimate”,
- worksheet (next sheet), one per child,
Lesson flow (about 40 minutes)
| 5 min | Warm-up Ask: “What might help us today?” |
| 10 min | On the board Open “More trials, steadier estimate”. Ask: “What changed on the screen?” |
| 15 min | Worksheet Children complete the day sheet. |
| 10 min | Share Ask: “In one sentence, what was today’s idea?” |
On the board
Leave “More trials, steadier estimate” on screen for the main block.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Watch for
- Skipping the board -- bring them back to the picture.
- Correct answer with no explanation -- ask how do you know?
Answers and look-fors
- Meeting the idea sounds like a clear sentence about more trials, steadier estimate.
Day 3 · Worksheet
More trials, steadier estimate
NameClassDate
Use the board picture. Show your thinking.
1. Draw or write one example from the board.
2. What is the main idea in your words?
3. Make a second example of your own.
I know I am right because
I can teach this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Day 4 · Teacher planDay 4 of 5
The denominator is the whole game
Children practise “The denominator is the whole game” with talk, the board picture, and a short worksheet. About 40 minutes.
We are learning to
- explain the denominator is the whole game in Year 10 words,
- use the board picture to check thinking,
- record an example on paper.
Success criteria
- I can show one example of today’s idea.
- I can say the idea in a short sentence.
You need
- interactive unit open on “The denominator is the whole game”,
- worksheet (next sheet), one per child,
Lesson flow (about 40 minutes)
| 5 min | Warm-up Ask: “What might help us today?” |
| 10 min | On the board Open “The denominator is the whole game”. Ask: “What changed on the screen?” |
| 15 min | Worksheet Children complete the day sheet. |
| 10 min | Share Ask: “In one sentence, what was today’s idea?” |
On the board
Leave “The denominator is the whole game” on screen for the main block.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Watch for
- Skipping the board -- bring them back to the picture.
- Correct answer with no explanation -- ask how do you know?
Answers and look-fors
- Meeting the idea sounds like a clear sentence about the denominator is the whole game.
Day 4 · Worksheet
The denominator is the whole game
NameClassDate
Use the board picture. Show your thinking.
1. Draw or write one example from the board.
2. What is the main idea in your words?
3. Make a second example of your own.
I know I am right because
I can teach this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Day 5 · Teacher planDay 5 of 5
Day 5 practice
Children practise “Day 5 practice” with talk, the board picture, and a short worksheet. About 40 minutes.
We are learning to
- explain day 5 practice in Year 10 words,
- use the board picture to check thinking,
- record an example on paper.
Success criteria
- I can show one example of today’s idea.
- I can say the idea in a short sentence.
You need
- interactive unit open on “Day 5 practice”,
- worksheet (next sheet), one per child,
Lesson flow (about 40 minutes)
| 5 min | Warm-up Ask: “What might help us today?” |
| 10 min | On the board Open “Day 5 practice”. Ask: “What changed on the screen?” |
| 15 min | Worksheet Children complete the day sheet. |
| 10 min | Share Ask: “In one sentence, what was today’s idea?” |
On the board
Leave “Day 5 practice” on screen for the main block.
seegongsik.com/au/y10/probability/AC9M10P02
Watch for
- Skipping the board -- bring them back to the picture.
- Correct answer with no explanation -- ask how do you know?
Answers and look-fors
- Meeting the idea sounds like a clear sentence about day 5 practice.
Day 5 · Worksheet
Day 5 practice
NameClassDate
Use the board picture. Show your thinking.
1. Draw or write one example from the board.
2. What is the main idea in your words?
3. Make a second example of your own.
I know I am right because
I can teach this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Cut-out cardsReuse all week
Talk cards for Estimating Conditional Probability by Simulation
Cut out. Hold up a card and give an example.
A stream of simulated trials
Give an example.
Count inside the condition only
Give an example.
More trials, steadier estimate
Give an example.
The denominator is the whole game
Give an example.
Day 5 practice
Give an example.
Store in an envelope labelled AC9M10P02.
Mini-check · End of week
Show what you know: Estimating Conditional Probability by Simulation
NameClassDate
Work on your own. Use pictures or numbers.
1. Draw or write the big idea of this week.
2. Give one clear example.
3. Give a second different example.
4. What mistake should we watch for?
I can explain this idea to a partner:Yes □ No □
Mini-check · AnswersTeacher
Answers and look-fors
- Item 1 names the unit idea (estimating conditional probability by simulation) in child words.
- Items 2-3: two different correct examples.
- Item 4: a real muddle for this topic.
Use day-plan look-fors across the week.