ACARA v9 CONTENT DESCRIPTION “compare observations with predictions with guidance”
Builds on making a guess, called a prediction, about what will happen. Here we take the next step: we look at what really happens and check our guess. We will use a grown-up to help us line up our prediction next to what we saw and ask, was the guess right or was it a surprise?
First we guess, then we look
A prediction is a guess we make before we look. We might guess that a ball will bounce high, or that four toys will float. Then we try it and watch. Watching what really happens is how we check our guess. Sometimes the guess is right. Sometimes what we see is a surprise. Both are good. Checking is the part that turns a guess into real learning.
Did our prediction come true?
We made a prediction about toys in water. Now look at what really happened and decide which sentences match our prediction.
Claim: We predicted that the light toys would float and the heavy toys would sink.
The light plastic duck floated on top of the water.
The heavy metal spoon sank to the bottom.
The light cork floated, just like we guessed.
The water in the tub was a nice blue colour.
We did the test on a sunny day after lunch.
Decide whether each statement is evidence for the claim, or not.
Putting our guess next to what we saw
A good way to check a prediction is to draw two bars side by side. One bar is what we guessed. The other bar is what really happened. If the two bars are the same height, our guess was right. If they are different, we saw something new. With help, we look at the bars and say which is taller. That tells us if more happened or less happened than we thought.
We guessed 5 floaters. How many really floated?
We guessed that 5 toys would float. Then we put them in the water and counted. The chart shows our guess next to what really happened. Which bar is taller?
Our guess bar is 5, but only 3 toys really floated. The guess bar is taller, so fewer toys floated than we thought. That is a surprise, and now we know the true number is 3.
When the answer is a surprise
Not every prediction comes true, and that is the fun part. Sometimes one thing does not do what we guessed at all. We watch a row of things change, expecting the same change each time, and then one of them does something different. That odd one is a surprise. We do not hide it. We point to it and ask why it did not match our guess.
Find the cup that surprised us
We guessed that each cup with more sugar would taste sweeter, so the sweet score should climb. We tasted them in order. One cup did not match our guess. Click the one that surprised us.
Click the point that does not fit the pattern of the others.
Why this matters
Checking a prediction is what real scientists do all day. They make a careful guess, they look at what really happens, and they tell the truth about what they saw, even when it is a surprise. We never change what happened to match our guess. A surprise is a gift, because it teaches us something we did not know before. That is how learning grows.
Quick self-check
1. A prediction is a guess about what will happen...
2. You guessed 4 toys would float. When you tried it, 4 toys floated. Your guess was...
3. You guessed the ice would stay hard, but it turned to water. That is a...
4. You guessed 5 seeds would grow. Only 3 grew. How many fewer grew than you guessed?
5. After we check our prediction, what is the best thing to do?